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Open analytical tools · continuously updated
Scenario simulations and interactive infographics
Economic and behavioural models. Simulations of how events may unfold
You change the assumptions and the result is recalculated. The answers depend on what you believe, or on the hypothesis you want to test. Your assumptions determine what these models produce.
STATUS OF THESE MATERIALS
Read this before use. These terms apply to every model on this page. Continued use of this site implies your agreement with them.
What these are
Conditional scenario models. Every result reads as “if the assumptions are these, then by the logic of the model this follows” — not as a statement about the future.
Tools for structured thinking in expert discussion: they make assumptions, sensitivities and branch points visible.
Built exclusively on open sources and the group's own expert judgement — official statistics, public reports, opinion surveys, media coverage and the analytical group's expert estimates. No intelligence material has been used.
With the origin of every figure marked: fact, source estimate, reconstruction, model assumption. Reconstructed values are not standalone data.
Versioned. Each model carries a version number and a data cut-off date.
Produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence. Claude, ChatGPT and other models were used for design, language work, translation and cross-checking of the interactive infographics. The framing of the tasks, the choice of sources, the structure of the models and responsibility for the conclusions rest with the analytical group.What these are not
● Not a forecast or a prediction. No trajectory, date or threshold is a claim that an event will occur.
● Not empirical probabilities. Probability figures are conditional on the structure of the model; they are not measured frequencies of events.
● Not an intelligence product. These materials contain no restricted information, state secrets or official secrets.
● Not the official position of the authorities of Ukraine or of any other state, of any armed forces, international organisation or donor.
● Not investment, legal, tax, medical or security advice, and not a basis for operational, personnel or financial decisions.
● Not a claim about the intentions or actions of specific individuals, companies or states. Public figures and organisations are mentioned solely in an analytical context, on the basis of open data.Terms of use
● These materials are provided "as is”, without warranty of accuracy, completeness or fitness for any particular purpose.
● The authors, Advanter Group and partner organisations accept no liability for decisions taken on the basis of these materials, or for any direct or indirect consequences of such decisions.
● After its data cut-off date a model may cease to be current. Check the version before use.
● Citation requires the model name, version, cut-off date and rights holder. Selective quotation of individual figures outside the context of the model is not permitted.
● Corrections, objections and alternative sources are welcome and are taken into account in later versions.
Block А russiaThe adversary’s condition: economy, governability, elites and rear
Block В WarCapabilities, trajectories and the space of scenarios
Block D Ukraine: economy and societyDomestic policies and their consequences
D.5. Small and medium-sized business: 2020 → 2030
Twenty-four survey waves and 13,770 questionnaires set against macroeconomic statistics. The drivers of pressure on business, profiles of growing and shrinking companies, a forecasting model built on eight drivers, and a scenario-space builder.
АНКЕТА
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Found an error in a model? Write to us — we take corrections into account in later versions.
· Materials are updated regularly · Page updated: August 2026
© 2026
In partnership with
Found an error in a model? Write to us — we take corrections into account in later versions.
· Materials are updated regularly · Page updated: August 2026
© 2026
All rights Reserved Advanter Group
All rights Reserved Advanter Group